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I was wrong in last week’s print column–wishful thinking on the part of my sources, I think–about the actual options that General Stanley McChrystal has presented the President for ramping up the US military presence.louis vuitton speedy The real numbers appear to be: 10,000…40,000…or 80,000. I say “appear” because I’ve heard those numbers, but can’t fully confirm them–and apparently the New York Times has heard the same thing, tucking this paragraph inconspicuously into a piece about Afghan corruption: Officials said over the weekend that Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the top NATO commander in Afghanistan, had prepared options that include a maximum troop increase of about 80,000, a number highly unlikely to be considered seriously by the White House.fake louis vuitton Much of the official focus has been on a lower option that the general presented, for 40,000 additional troops. The United States currently has about 68,000 troops in the country. Now, the 80,000 is obviously a straw man. And the new numbers don’t change my prediction in last week’s column: 20, ooo or thereabouts–in other words, something less than the 40,000 McChrystal actually wants.louis vuitton replica But my prediction is just a prediction (and my sense of what would be appropriate)–and all rumors about where the Administration is headed on this decision seem to be only that: rumors. Indeed, I’ve heard that many of the people who’ve been in the Situation Room for the Afghan strategy meetings are not certain where the President will wind up: his questions for those who want to maintain current troop levels are as intensely skeptical as the questions he asks those who support a military surge. And there is an additional factor added to the mix in recent days: how will the Pakistani Army respond to the Taliban attack on its military intelligence headquarters in Rawalpindi over the weekend? If, as is often said, Pakistan is an army in search of a country, this was the equivalent of terrorists successfully breaching the Capitol. And so, again: Will this lead the Pakistanis to finally mount their long-promised assault on the Taliban in their South Waziristan homelands? Or will they concentrate on Punjab–the Army’s homeland–which is now riddled with terrorist cells? Needless to say, the more pressure the Paks put on the Taliban along the Afghan border, the more plausible our Afghan adventure becomes.louis vuitton neverfull But the President really can’t make an informed decision until we (a) know what the Pakistanis are actually going to do and (b) know how and when the Afghan presidential election is finally resolved. I’m told this decision may still be weeks away–and it should be. But it could come tomorrow: the President plays his cards on close hold.
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A little fun reading on this Columbus Day courtesy of the New Republic‘s Noam Scheiber (aka, my husband), who reports on the Obama economics team’s shared passion for tennis.cheap gucci belts When they’re not busy trying to save the global economy, Geithner, Summers et al like to blow off steam by heading down to Nick Bollettieri’s famous academy in Florida for tennis camp: The trip soon became an annual ritual, with Geithner, Sperling, and several other former colleagues joining in. Each March, the wonks-in-exile would present themselves to the Bollettieri instructors for two days of extensive drilling. In one particularly taxing exercise, the campers would hit a forehand approach, then charge the net to take two volleys before sprinting back to the baseline–one after the other in a whir of circular motion. Imagine the Waltz of the Flowers from The Nutcracker; then imagine that the dancers are middle-aged men of roughly average dexterity, and you have the idea.louis vuitton shoes replica Not surprisingly, given this crowd, the trip isn’t exactly a laid-back bonding exercise. “Those guys are very, very competitive. Put that in there. Holy shit,” says Bollettieri.louis vuitton backpack for sale “There??s no friendship on the friggin?? court. They want to beat the shit out of everybody.” And how do they stack up? “Sperling is better than any of us,” Summers says. “I was probably second-best at hitting the ball, but I don??t move as well–I??m not as fast.louis vuitton shoes replica So I would say Geithner or I were?probably second-best.” I love the fact that Bollettieri, who has helped train such driven, professional players as Andre Agassi and Boris Becker, is kind of shocked by how ferocious these middle-aged wonks are. Read the whole thing.
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Charles Krauthammer has disgorged a magnum opussy sort of rant on the cover of the week’s Weekly Standard, based on a lecture he gave to the Manhattan Institute, a neoconservative think tank that has actually done some creative thinking about urban issues over the years.fake louis vuitton Nothing creative about Krauthammer’s thinking, though, which stands as an anti-Nobel exegesis, blaming Barack Obama for choosing a foreign policy that will lead, inexorably, to American decline. It’s actually the same old ‘hammer hegemonizing–unipolar, unilateral, unidimensional, uninflected and unsubtle. There are one or two sort of true sentences in it. The most important is this one: [T]he ultimate purpose of [the New Liberalism's] foreign policy is to make America less hegemonic, less arrogant, less dominant.cheap gucci belts Well, two out of three ain’t bad. Barack Obama would probably argue–as would most foreign policy centrists–that the goal of his foreign policy would be to make the United States dominant in a more effective way: at the center of multilateral efforts to bring international miscreants under control. This can happen militarily, as it is being done on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. It can also happen through a US-led international sanctions regime, as has been very effective in sending a tough message to North Korea (with the strong support from China and Russia)–which may well bear fruit before long.replica louis vuitton Or it can happen through US-led efforts to bring peace to the Middle East and a strong multilateral deterrence posture, including many regional players, to counteract Iran’s possible nuclear ambitions. You don’t achieve this sort of dominance by marching into Baghdad in three weeks. It takes patience, a pattern of good faith behavior, the acknowledgment that the U.S.louis vuitton replica hasn’t always acted in good faith in the past. Indeed, part of the reason why Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize seems so foolish is that diplomatic success can’t be judged in nine months–those of us who believe that Obama is trying to do the right things overseas have no idea if he’s any good at it yet (as Nixon and Kissinger were in their long-gestating opening to China). Krauthammer’s take–and that’s all it is, a journalistic take puffed into doctrinal pretense–is based on several demonstrably wrong premises: The first is that George W. Bush’s foreign policy was a success.replica louis vuitton? (It was, in some ways–like fighting AIDs in Africa–but Krauthammer doesn’t care so much about that sort of stuff.) The second is that by going around the world, acknowledging that the U.S. has not always behaved well in the past–while always, always, taking our friends and enemies to task for their failures in the same paragraphs–Obama is somehow damaging America’s moral standing or “exceptionalism,” as Krauthammer would have it: In Strasbourg, President Obama was asked about American exceptionalism.louis vuitton backpack for sale His answer? “I believe in American exceptionalism, just as I suspect that the Brits believe in British exceptionalism and the Greeks believe in Greek exceptionalism.” Interesting response. Because if everyone is exceptional, no one is. Well, that’s one limited, literal way of looking at it.fake louis vuitton Another way is this: Great countries don’t have to go around proclaiming their greatness. An American President who pronounced America’s “exceptionalism” would be obnoxious. An American President who admits our imperfections–while proclaiming our enormous strengths as a multi-ethnic, multi-religious, multi-racial bastion of freedom and equality–is demonstrating our “exceptionalism” in a far more sophisticated and effective way. We are a country willing to admit mistakes.louis vuitton handbags for sale That’s pretty exceptional. Krauthammer loves inflammatory, We’re-Number-One!!! sort of locutions. He loves the word “hegemon,” mostly because moderates and liberals find it muscle-bound. But his sentiment here in his most prescriptive paragraph is, I believe, unimpeachable: First, accept our role as hegemon.replica louis vuitton And reject those who deny its essential benignity. There is a reason that we are the only hegemon in modern history to have not immediately catalyzed the creation of a massive counter-hegemonic alliance–as occurred, for example, against Napoleonic France and Nazi Germany. There is a reason so many countries of the Pacific Rim and the Middle East and Eastern Europe and Latin America welcome our presence as balancer of power and guarantor of their freedom. And that reason is simple: We are as benign a hegemon as the world has ever seen.louis vuitton belts That is true mostly because three of the four Presidents since we achieved our undeniable pre-eminence with the collapse of the Soviet Union–George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama–thoroughly rejected the sort of bullying that Krauthammer advocates.? The disastrous exception was George W.fake louis vuitton shoes Bush. Our reputation in the world, now being regained after the Bush debacle, is a result of the fact that we’ve always been half-hearted imperialists, pathetic in our occasional attempts at oppression–and, more often, from the Bosnian accord to the Indonesian p0st-Tsunami airlift, willing to act selflessly to benefit humanity. All you need to do is compare the Russians’ utter brutality in Afghanistan with our real, if ineffective so far, attempts to bring education and economic development to the people so that we can leave a more stable country. (General McChrystal’s refusal to continue offensive aerial strikes, which caused some terrible civilian casualties, is an example of our continuing efforts to do as little damage as possible.fake louis vuitton shoes) In the end, the real problem with Krauthammer’s rant is this: he really doesn’t want us to be exceptional. He wants us to be more brutal, more like other historically powerful countries, more like the Russians in Afghanistan or the British in Mesopotamia. His position on Iraq tips his hand, as he excoriates Obama for having …almost no interest in garnering the fruits of a very costly and very bloody success–namely, using our Strategic Framework Agreement to turn the new Iraq into a strategic partner and anchor for U.S.louis vuitton neverfull influence in the most volatile area of the world. Iraq is a prize–we can debate endlessly whether it was worth the cost–of great strategic significance that the administration seems to have no intention of exploiting in its determination to execute a full and final exit. A prize! Sounds sort of like Churchill in his most demented colonial moments: India, the jewel in the crown! (The fact that a duly elected Iraqi government wants us to leave is ignored.) Krauthammer’s sort of imperialism–a brutal and patronizing neo-colonialism–has never sat well with the American people.louis vuitton speedy And it doesn’t work in the world. It was, in fact, the cause of the marked decline in American moral authority and power over the past eight years–including the near-destruction of our Army–that people like Krauthammer refuse to acknowledge. That disaster is being rectified now, from Robert Gates’s various decisions to scuttle unnecessary weapons systems and use those resources to bolster our troops in the field, to Hillary Clinton’s efforts to transform our hidebound and ineffective foreign aid disbursements, to Barack Obama’s more judicious decision-making about when to use force, when to sanction, when to negotiate. Those decisions may not prove wise in every instance, but they are being made with an intelligence and consideration that never attended the sledgehammer fecklessness of the last President, whose policies Krauthammer so admired.louis vuitton speedy On A Related Matter: Glenn Greenwald recently suggested that I proposed Bush for a Nobel Peace Prize because of this 2005 column. Those who actually read the column–which was about the dangerous naivete of Bush’s “Freedom” Agenda–will see that my suggestion was ironic in the extreme (and the editor who slapped that silly headline on the piece should have understood that, too). It is interesting that the irony-deprived Pete Wehner also used this column as an example of me praising Bush. The fact is, as I’ve written more than once, Bush’s support for premature Palestinian elections brought on the Hamas disaster in Gaza.chanel outlet
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I have a piece on Time.replica louis vuittoncom today examining the claims made in a study released by the health insurance lobby over the weekend. The industry took a pummeling on Monday for releasing what many viewed as a skewed report based on cherry-picked information.
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Newt Gingrich is promising to build NASA colonies on the moon.louis vuitton neverfull Mitt Romney is imagining Fidel Castro in “a nether region,” which one can only assume is a polite Mormon phrase for hell. Both men are all over the radio, putting on their best Spanish accents. No point in diluting the pandering: this is Florida, the primary big leagues, with more votes at stake than in the past three contests combined. And the latest TIME/CNN poll shows the two pack leaders running even.louis vuitton handbags for sale Here’s why Tuesday’s consequential Florida primary is totally different from anything the 2012 GOP race has seen so far. It’s a closed primary. That means Democrats and independents can’t vote and there are no last-minute registration options as there were in Iowa. (The registration books for the GOP presidential primary closed Jan.cheap gucci belts 3.) This is most likely to disadvantage Romney, who’s performed relatively well with Republican-leaning independents to date, and Ron Paul, who collected a lot of atypical GOP primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. It’s one of the reasons Paul’s not contesting Florida at all. There’s absentee voting.chanel handbags for sale About half of the 520,000 Florida Republicans who’ve requested advance ballots have already cast their votes by mail. While that’s not a huge chunk of the electorate–1.9 million Republicans voted in the 2008 GOP primary–it probably gives Romney a slight edge given the dynamics of the race to date. For much of? January, Newt was near the nadir of his epic 30-point collapse in the Florida polls, from which he’s now almost fully recovered.fake gucci shoes Romney and his allies spent heavily on TV therre during that period, while Gingrich and Co. had to yet to purchase a single spot. But there’s early voting, too. In-person ballot-casting started right after Gingrich’s big South Carolina win and more than 120,000 voters have turned up this week.fake uggs Media afterglow has helped Newt’s poll numbers and another fat $5 million check to Gingrich’s PAC from casino magnate Sheldon Adelson and wife Miriam has given Gingrich a significant presence on TV. Even so, ad spending totals are weighted heavily in Romney’s favor. According to NBC News, Romney and his allies have spent a total of $14.4 million on Florida ads to date.louis vuitton belts Team Gingrich has spent just $1.9 million, most of it from the Adelson-fueled super PAC. Florida advertising is really expensive. TV time in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina is penny-saver cheap compared to Florida.fake ugg boots Seven of its metro areas are among the 100 largest media markets in the country, including three–Tampa-St. Petersburg, Miami-Ft. Lauderdale and Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne–that fall into the top 20. Romney’s cash advantage could end up making all the difference.louis vuitton neverfull And there’s quite a difference when it comes to first place or second place in Florida. It’s winner takes all. Well, winner takes half. Um, probably.fake chanel shoes The Republican Party of Florida broke some RNC rules by moving up the date of its primary and was thus stripped of half its 99 nominating delegates at this year’s convention (in Tampa!), which the RPOF has decided to award in their entirety to the primary winner ?? which is another potential RNC no-no. The winner-take-all nature of the contest (as well as closed primary rules, prohibitive costs, etc.) have kept Paul out of the race, rendered Santorum a non-factor and set up an all-or-nothing scenario for Romney or Gingrich: whoever ends up finishing second will leave Florida with nothing to show for their huge investment. However, there are now rumblings of a legal challenge to try to force the RPOF to award its delegates proportionally.louis vuitton outlet online But it won’t be settled anytime soon. Florida helped seal Romney’s fate in 2008. After losing to Mike Huckabee in Iowa and John McCain in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Romney entered Florida four years ago desperate for a win. He didn’t get it.louis vuitton handbags for sale McCain took 36% of the vote to Romney’s 31%, and with it, all 57 delegates. McCain won in part on the strength of Florida’s Latino (mostly Cuban) Republicans, of which he claimed an outright majority, and the effectiveness of his electability argument. This time, Romney is the perceived moderate with the electability argument and, lo and behold, he’s nearing majority support among Latino Republicans in the state. In 2008, the knockout blow didn’t come till Super Tuesday, but Florida, as always, was a political haymaker.louis vuitton shoes replica
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The Romney campaign has another very effective press release, excerpting an article that Elliott Abrams, the former Reagan Assistant Secretary of State For Trading Arms for Hostages, has written about Newt Gingrich’s criticisms of Ronald Reagan’s foreign policy.fake chanel shoes It will come as no great surprise that Gingrich was impatient with Reagan for not obliterating the Soviet Union more quickly. Some excerpts and an additional observation below the fold: Here is Gingrich: ??Measured against the scale and momentum of the Soviet empire??s challenge, the Reagan administration has failed, is failing, and without a dramatic change in strategy will continue to fail. . .chanel outlet . President Reagan is clearly failing. ??/strong> Such was Gingrich??s faith in President Reagan that in 1985, he called Reagan??s meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev ??the most dangerous summit for the West since Adolf Hitler met with Neville Chamberlain in 1938 in Munich.?? ??/strong> In Afghanistan, Reagan??s policy was marked by ??impotence [and] incompetence.louis vuitton handbags for sale?? Thus Gingrich concluded as he surveyed five years of Reagan in power that ??we have been losing the struggle with the Soviet empire.?? Reagan did not know what he was doing, and ??it is precisely at the vision and strategy levels that the Soviet empire today is superior to the free world.?? ??/strong> The second point to make is that Gingrich made these assaults on the Reagan administration just as Democratic attacks were heating up unmercifully. Far from becoming a reliable voice for Reagan policy and the struggle against the Soviets, Gingrich took on Reagan and his administration.chanel outlet It appears to be a habit: He did the same to George W. Bush when Bush was making the toughest and most controversial decision of his presidency ?? the surge in Iraq. ??/strong> Bush on the surge and Reagan on the Soviet empire were tough, courageous ?? and right. Newt Gingrich in retrospect seems less the visionary than the politician who refused the party??s leader loyal support on grounds that history has proved were simply wrong.fake louis vuitton shoes Sure sounds like good old imperious, peremptory, impatient Newt Gingrich to me. But it’s funny, Newt also sounds like imperious, impatient, neoconservative Elliott Abrams to me–and like Newt himself–when it comes to Barack Obama’s policy toward Iran. Abrams is also another of those, like Mitt Romney, who incorrectly describes Obama’s Middle East policy as a “return to the 1967 borders” without adding “with mutually agreed upon land swaps.” I saw him Abrams do that, and be corrected, at the AIPAC convention last spring.cheap gucci belts And while Abrams has fired a direct torpedo at Gingrich’s Reagan fetishism, it should be noted that the gunner and target share an entirely dangerous, and sometimes illegal, penchant for warmongering.
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New Hampshire voters are famously fickle.chanel outlet They venture out on cold January mornings to shake a candidate’s hand, look him in the eye and judge the mettle of the man, polls and pundits be damned. Four years ago, they shrugged off Barack Obama’s call for change and answered Hillary Clinton’s teary appeal, setting up the epic six-month nomination struggle that followed. In 2000, they spurned Bush the heir for McCain the upstart. They dumped Dole for Buchanan in ’96.fake gucci shoes New Hampshire is where conventional wisdom goes to die at the hands of flinty Northeastern sensibility. Except when it doesn’t. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday night, claiming 39% of the vote in a widely anticipated rout that at long last focused the GOP’s schizophrenic nominating contest on its protagonist. Ron Paul, the libertarian septuagenarian with a Bieberish fan base, took a strong second with 23%, reaffirming his rising influence in the GOP.louis vuitton belts Jon Huntsman, Obama’s former ambassador to China who focused his campaign almost solely on the Granite State, notched 17% to come in third, quickening his campaign’s faint pulse, if only briefly. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich matched his sub-par Iowa finish in fourth, while Rick Santorum dropped to a disappointing fifth. But the story of the New Hampshire campaign’s final hours, and of the 11 days that remain before South Carolina’s bloody contest, is really about the front runner. Romney is no mere lap-leader.gucci handbag for sale He’s the first non-incumbent Republican in modern history to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. His finances, staff and establishment backing are in sixth gear. As 500,000 volunteer phone calls, 75,000 home visits and 35,000 yard signs nitrous-boosted him to victory on Tuesday, the Republican party awoke to the reality that the nomination is very nearly his. (MORE: New Hampshire Primary Day: Big Expectations, Little Drama) Almost every word of Romney’s victory speech Tuesday night could have been delivered at the Tampa convention that will officially crown the Republican nominee in August.louis vuitton outlet online “The President has run out of ideas. Now he’s running out of excuses,” Romney said. “This President puts his faith in government. We put our faith in the American people.gucci handbag for sale” New Hampshire was in his rearview. This was pure general-election fuel, high octane stuff. “Obama wants to put free enterprise on trial,” he said. And then, in a blink-and-you-missed-it moment, came a dig at his so-called competition.ugg boots outlet “And the last few days we’ve seen desperate Republicans join forces with him. This is such a mistake for our Party and for our nation.” But without skipping a beat, the front runner was back on Obama. “This country already has a leader who divides us with the bitter politics of envy.fake gucci shoes” No one knows more about the bitter politics of envy this week than Newt Gingrich. He tried to set outlandish expectations for Romney on Tuesday, pegging a win for his rival at nothing less than 50% of the vote while downplaying the importance of his own finish. When CNN broadcast news of Romney’s victory across the TV screens at Newt HQ on Tuesday, Wolf Blitzer stayed on mute. Gingrich’s speech at the end of the night was a subdued call to elect a Republican “spokesman” in Reagan’s mold.replica chanel shoes “This campaign is going to go on to South Carolina,” he said, without sounding particularly thrilled about it. His supporters tried to put a happy face on it. “I think he had a respectable showing,” said Stephen Stepanek, a New Hampshire state house member from Amherst. “We’ll see how Mitt does when people really start looking at his record.fake uggs” (PHOTOS: The Road to New Hampshire: The Primary Campaign’s Final Days in Photos) Before Gingich’s speech, things were different. Soured by the negative ads that Romney’s allies used to scuttle his candidacy in Iowa, Gingrich had resorted to a vicious counter-campaign. He hit Romney for timid centrism, a “pro-abortion” agenda, untrustworthiness, and most of all his record at private equity firm Bain Capital — which has suddenly, after months of media attention squandered on the GOP’s shiniest objects, become the central issue of the race. Romney sustained a self-inflicted wound on Monday with an ineptly phrased wish for customers to be able to choose freely between insurance plans.loui vuitton “I like being able to fire people who provide services to me,” he said. Taken out of context, it fits neatly into the caricature of a wicked capitalist that his rivals now hope to sketch. Gingrich held it up as proof positive of Romney’s dim chances of beating President Obama, a notion unsupported by any polling. After securing a $5 million check from billionaire casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, Gingrich backers bought up $3.louis vuitton replica4 million of airtime in South Carolina and rights to a documentary that casts Romney’s tenure at Bain Capital as corporate looting at its most ruthless. Romney’s dominance in New Hampshire had inspired other rivals to pick up the spoiler’s banner. ??Governor Romney enjoys firing people. I enjoy creating jobs,?? Huntsman quipped this week.louis vuitton replica His candidacy, despite a solid third-place finish on Tuesday and a remarkably peppy primary night speech, faces huge challenges after New Hampshire. Huntsman has spent little time in any other state, polls in the single digits in just about all of them and has little money with which to dig himself out. His greatest remaining resource is the backing of a well-funded political action committee, which seems as eager to soil Romney as it is to aid Huntsman. Rick Perry, whose fading campaign managed less than 1% of the vote Tuesday, joined in too.fake gucci shoes ??Allowing these companies to come in and loot people??s jobs, loot their pensions, loot their ability to take care of their families,” he said in reference to Bain, “I will suggest they??re just vultures.?? Santorum’s fifth-place finish marked a miscalculation. High on Iowa corn syrup, his campaign decided against skipping New Hampshire for South Carolina, where he hopes support among social conservatives can still gather behind him to help wrest the nomination form Romney’s grasp. ??It??s gonna be bloody,?? one adviser said.cheap gucci belts But after a series of confrontational campaign stops in New Hampshire, the former Pennsylvania Senator came away with relatively few votes to show for the trip and uncertain prospects ahead. “We can win this race,” he said Tuesday night, as if he needed to remind his supporters of the fact. “We have an opportunity in this race to be the true conservative.” Romney went unmentioned, but loomed large.fake uggs Paul is the only one who seems unfazed. ??We urge Ron Paul??s opponents who have been unsuccessfully trying to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney to unite by getting out of the race and uniting behind Paul??s candidacy,?? spokesman Jesse Benton said Tuesday night. “We’re nibbling at his heels,” Paul yelled in a boisterous speech that followed Romney’s. But Paul is largely playing for delegates and a bigger platform for his ideas.louis vuitton belts “He wins every single time, even if it’s not the popular vote,” said Robin Caine, a supporter who attended Paul’s watch party Tuesday night. “He’s never been more popular.” That’s Paul’s game. The rest of the field’s realignment to attack Romney has thrown the Republican Party into self doubt.chanel handbags for sale Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol wrote a soul-searching column debating the merits of attacking Romney and his days at Bain. “Newt is using the language of the Left in going after Romney on Bain Capital,” fretted conservative radio titan Rush Limbaugh. “That makes me uncomfortable.” And South Carolina conservative bannerman Senator Jim DeMint said Tuesday night that he was “concerned about the few Republicans who have criticized some of what I consider free market principles here.fake louis vuitton shoes?? 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In the days before the Iowa caucus, Rick Santorum had a decision to make.fake louis vuitton shoes Spiking in the polls and positioned for a top-three result, Santorum could try to ride the wave into New Hampshire, where legions of free media awaited, and hope a second consecutive strong finish would convince conservatives to unite around him as the consensus non-Romney candidate. Or he could decamp immediately for South Carolina, a state whose evangelical electorate was admittedly a better match for Santorum??s social conservatism. Like Mike Huckabee, Santorum chose the former. Now he will enter South Carolina weakened, his momentum lessened by a lackluster fifth-place finish in the Granite State, where Santorum weathered a series of skirmishes with hostile protesters that muddled his message and exposed his ragged organization.fake louis vuitton shoes (MORE:?As Romney Claims New Hampshire, the GOP Comes to Grips with His Inevitability) Despite the setback, Santorum says he is poised to make a splash in the Palmetto State. He won the only statewide straw poll last spring, and he??ll have some $3 million in the bank to blanket the airwaves with ads. His blueprint to become the conservative alternative to Romney begins with a top finish in South Carolina. ??We have to finish really well there,?? he said on Monday.fake chanel shoes ??Over time–it??s not going to be this primary or the next, but we??ll have several races down the road, this field will narrow–it??ll be a one-on-one race, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, and we??ll win this race.?? South Carolina is where the winnowing starts. The Palmetto State is do-or-die territory not just for Santorum, but also for Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, the other two candidates jockeying for support from the conservative base. Both Gingrich and Perry are making their last stands in South Carolina, as each vies to emerge as the favored choice of the state’s activist base.louis vuitton neverfull Their mutual desperation sets up a scenario in which the trio will train their ammunition not just on Mitt Romney, whom all three whacked Monday, but also on each other. ??It??s gonna be bloody,?? says a Santorum adviser, who acknowledges the swiping among Santorum, Perry and Gingrich may intensify as the race heads south. Ron Paul, whose strong second-place New Hampshire finish is keeping him competitive, will also be in the mix. South Carolina is the last state he plans to contest in January??he??ll forgo Florida??s expensive primary??and his campaign plans to make its mark in the Palmetto State.louis vuitton belts Internal polling shows Paul as the second-choice for a plurality of Gingrich and Santorum supporters there, and the candidate will be going after them aggressively. His campaign started airing an ad on Monday that takes aim at Santorum??s “record of duplicity on issues such as spending ?? including raising the debt ceiling ?? and insider lobbying,?? and aides say Paul will continue to call out Gingrich??s ??serial hypocrisy.?? “It’s a blood sport everywhere,?? campaign manager Jesse Benton says. ??We’re ready for it.cheap gucci belts We’ve got broad shoulders.” (MORE:?New Hampshire Creates Big Expectations, if Little Drama, as GOP Race Wears On) Meanwhile, Santorum??s aides say they have no plans to go negative. In fact, they profess they have no new tricks up their sleeves at all. That??s not hard to believe: Santorum has a skeletal staff, refusing to hire even a pollster, and despite the influx of cash over the past week ?? his $3 million haul far outpaced his entire total in 2011 ?? has been stingy about opening the purse-strings.chanel handbags for sale He is committed to sticking with the heavy retail schedule that spurred his charge in Iowa. ??We??re pretty excited to get down to South Carolina, where he??s spent a lot of time,?? says strategist John Brabender. ??We already have an organization down there. And we finally have real resources to spend.replica louis vuitton?? For now, these ads will spotlight Santorum??s record, his large family and his commitment to conservative principles. And he’ll wait to see if his rivals begin to hit him. In recent days, Santorum has stepped up his attacks on Mitt Romney, warning New Hampshire residents that nominating moderate who backed a health-care mandate and waffled on social issues snatches away the party??s best lines of attacks in the general election. Voters are looking for ??somebody who can make a strong contrast,?? Santorum says, ??who has a record of being a strong, courageous, conviction conservative and can make a difference in energizing the conservative base of the party??s well as reach out in those tough, blue-collar manufacturing states????m the one with a track record of winning in those states.chanel handbags for sale
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Romneyworld begins to urge Republicans to clear the field.louis vuitton outlet online He’ll head south as the favorite. And grappling with Bain attacks. Bloomberg gets an early look at When Mitt Romney Came to Town. Gingrich will try to tag Romney as “pro-abortion.louis vuitton shoes replica” Playing defense, Romney’s Super PAC has snatched up $1.7 million in airtime in South Carolina. 10 key exit polls from New Hampshire. Last night’s speeches in 60 seconds.cheap gucci belts And Stephen Colbert is beating Huntsman in S.C.
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Austin, Texas Sitting in his office on the Dallas campus of Southern Methodist University, political-science professor Cal Jillson is mulling the news of Texas Governor Rick Perry’s departure from the presidential race.chanel handbags for sale The campus is in the heart of the Park Cities area, made up of several well-heeled, independently governed neighborhoods, including Highland Park and Preston Hollow, that serve as the core of the old Texas Republican establishment. The area is home to former President George W. Bush and party stalwarts like Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, who was clobbered by Perry in the last Republican primary race for governor. Two hundred miles to the west, there was likely little joy in tiny Paint Creek, where Perry was born, but there were probably some smug smiles in the genteel parlors of Highland Park and Preston Hollow.fake ugg boots “Chortling, likely,” Jillson says with a laugh. “I am within blocks of Highland Park, and I can hear it from here.” Texas Republicans, however, were discreet. No public word has been issued by the old guard.louis vuitton replica But the news that Perry was dropping out of the 2012 presidential race elicited gleeful responses from the state’s Democrats, to say the least. Former agriculture? commissioner Jim Hightower, who was trounced by Perry in his first statewide bid 22 years ago, told the Los Angeles Times, “He’s embarrassed us enough. When he got started, I warned people not to underestimate Perry??? he’s a lot stupider than he looks.” (PHOTOS: Rick Perry’s Life and Career in Pictures) Many Texans must feel that the governor is returning as damaged goods, with lots of self-inflicted political wounds that he will have to heal fast to be able to effectively govern the state.louis vuitton backpack for sale Last fall, as Perry entered the race and shot up in the polls, Texas Monthly magazine’s veteran political editor advised out-of-state reporters to take Perry seriously, given his wily and successful political history as the longest-serving governor in Texas history. But Paul Burka and other longtime Texas political observers watched in puzzlement as wily gave way to Wile E. Coyote. Perry’s campaign diminished into a poof of smoke with each gaffe or stiff answer.fake louis vuitton Jillson, who also had advised reporters and pundits to recognize Perry’s political skills, was horrified when he described NATO ally Turkey as a state led by Islamic terrorists. The governor exhibited, Jillson said, an “inability to focus” and “an unwillingness to spend time and effort” on the important foreign and domestic issues in the presidential race. Today, Texans standing in grocery-store checkout lanes are confronted with the latest cover of Texas Monthly magazine, which names the governor the recipient of the annual Bum Steer award, given to those the magazine believes have been “responsible for the biggest screw-up, gaffe, fumble, stumble, train wreck, or humiliation of the past twelve months.” It depicts a goofy cartoon of Perry, sucking his finger in puzzlement with a Post-it note stuck to his forehead and a list written in ink on his hand, spoofing his failure in a debate to remember which three federal agencies he would eliminate.chanel handbags for sale The caption reads, “Here’s something you won’t forget: You’re our ‘um’ steer of the year.” Indeed, Perry’s 端ber-Texas persona on the campaign trail left some cold back home. For example, when asked in a debate what he would be doing on a Saturday night if not debating Perry reckoned he would be at the shootin’ range. “The general image of Texas in the national mind is a love/hate thing,” Jillson said, a fact of life that most Texans understand.gucci handbag for sale But Perry’s reinforcement of the stereotype sent eyes rolling and radio talk show hosts pouncing. Some Texas’ Hispanic voters??? as many as 30% have voted for Perry in the past??? also found Perry’s embrace of Tea Party immigration rhetoric hard to swallow. Back home in Texas, the governor’s support for the Texas Dream Act, legislation granting in-state tuition to some illegal immigrants, had won him Hispanic kudos and had across the board support. But it drew fire from his fellow candidates in Iowa.ugg boots outlet Initially, Perry chided his fellow candidates, saying anyone opposing it didn’t “have a heart,” but then quickly retreated in face of boos. Back home, this failure to defend the Texas Dream Act, plus his naming of the controversial Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio to his campaign team seemed out of step with his past policies. Perry now returns bruised and diminished, taking his place among a gallery of strong talkin’, wide-steppin’ Texas politicos who have ventured across the Red River only to return with their tails between their legs: Former governor John Connally in 1980 and Senator Phil Gramm in 1996. Texas is “boom or bust” for Republicans, wrote Bill Whalen, a fellow at the Hoover Institution, in the Houston Chronicle.replica louis vuitton The Bush family saw two win the big prize. Connally went on to make a fortune and then lose it; Gramm went back to the U.S. Senate and then became an investment banker.louis vuitton replica Perry still has two more years in his current term and one legislative session ahead of him. But observers note that he is 61 and, with a net worth of around $1 million, he could opt to pursue financial independence for his family rather than finish his term or simply decline to run for re-election. Meanwhile, when Perry was away from Texas, the political landscape underwent some subtle, but significant shifts. Perry derives his power from longevity in office, his 12 years as governor have enabled him to appoint his allies to key slots on state boards and atop state agencies.fake uggs He has shown a mastery for managing the legislative agenda and forging alliances with the two top leaders, House Speaker Joe Straus and Lieut. Governor David Dewhurst, who is running for the U.S. Senate.louis vuitton backpack for sale If he wins, Dewhurst would move on to Washington and have to be replaced by a member of the Texas Senate??? giving state Democrats an opportunity to increase their influence. Meanwhile, Straus, perceived as a more centrist Republican than Perry, has indicated he may break with Perry next time around on the state budget. “I think at some point,” he told the El Paso Times in late October as Perry was polling in the teens in his presidential bid, “you can’t cut your way to prosperity.” It is a position not likely to find favor with Perry and it comes as crucial items are being added to the agenda: school finance reform, water and highway infrastructure needs.louis vuitton handbags for sale Texas has no term limits and Perry spokesman Ray Sullivan said following the drop out announcement that the governor would not rule out another term, nor another run at the presidency. But there are other strong Republicans standing in the queue for the top job in Texas, including Attorney General Greg Abbott. Meanwhile, a few Republicans are beginning to question Perry’s policies and approach, some even agreeing to go on the record, as Texas Monthly‘s Burka reveals in an upcoming magazine piece titled “Is There Life After Rick Perry?” Burka cites one top legislative staffer who says the Texas capitol is now living in a “post-Perry world. The fear is gone.louis vuitton handbags for sale” The battle metaphors are surfacing in Austin as Perry returns. “The Governor’s appointments permeate state government but blood is in the water,” says Harvey Kronberg, editor of the Quorum Report, a widely read insider newsletter. “Perry is damaged goods, even in Texas,” Kronberg adds, referencing recent Public Policy Polling numbers, discounted by some for their Democratic connections released on Jan. 17, that showed Perry in third place in a potential Texas primary behind Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich.louis vuitton belts But Jillson warns writing off Perry too quickly would be unwise and noted the next legislative session is a full year away. Meanwhile business and special interest lobbies “needs him every day” given his control of the state bureaucracy, Jillson adds. One key lobbying group, issued a welcome home to Perry immediately: “Governor Perry has always been good for Texas business, keeping our business climate and economy strong. The Governor has supported policies that have meant thousands of jobs for Texas.louis vuitton belts We welcome him home to continue his work of making Texas the strongest economy in the country and the job creation leader,” said Bill Hammond, President of the Texas Association of Business. Perry has until 2014 “to rebuild his political foundation,” Jillson notes, although he doubts Perry will seek another term. “Keep in mind that almost all of our nominees in the last 50 years have been on their second attempt at the White House, so Republican voters tend to like experienced candidates that they’ve seen for a long time,” Sullivan told the Texas Tribune. 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